SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Season:
2008-2009
2007-2008
America  Europe  
08-09 Qualifying
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
England
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Russia
Scotland
Spain
Turkey
(-2.22)

This shows the chance that each team will qualify for the 2008-2009 UEFA tournaments.

Assumtions:

  • When I simulate a countries cup winner (or winners, in the case of England and France), I assume that only teams from the countries top league will win, and that each of those teams has an equal chance of winning.
  • I don't account for the automatic spot defending champions get in the Champions League and UEFA Cup, so even if your team shows 0% chance they could still get in if they win the tournament this year or if they where next in line to go and a team ahead of them in their league won.
  • All 53 leagues have an equal chance at earning one of the three Fair Play UEFA Cup slots. I don't account for Norway and Sweden’s fair play dominance.
  • Every league and team registers for and has not been banned from the tournaments.
  • Finally, this all still builds on the assumption that all teams have an equal chance of winning their remaining games.

But other than all that :), I think this list covers all the rules for tournament entry.

The change columns show the change since last week. A teams combined odds of getting into the 3 tournaments can exceed 100% because some of the Champions League losers and the Intertoto Cup winners get to also play in the UEFA Cup.

Champions LeagueUEFA CupIntertoto Cup
CountryPW-D-LGD%Change%Change%Change
CelticScotland8928-5-558100.0% -0.0% -7.30.0% -
Man. UnitedEngland8727-6-558100.0% -0.0% -1.70.0% -
Real MadridSpain8527-4-748100.0% -0.0% -0.0% -
Bayern MünchenGermany7622-10-247100.0% -0.0% -0.0% -
FC PortoPortugal7524-3-347100.0% -0.0% -0.0% -
Inter MilanItaly8525-10-343100.0% -0.0% -0.0% -
Standard LiègeBelgium7722-11-142100.0% -0.0% -0.0% -
GalatasarayTurkey7924-7-341100.0% 6.60.0% -11.30.0% -0.0
PSV EindhovenNetherlands7221-9-441100.0% -0.0% -2.30.0% -
ChelseaEngland8525-10-339100.0% -0.0% -3.70.0% -
LyonFrance7924-7-737100.0% -0.0% -0.0% -
AS RomaItaly8224-10-435100.0% -0.0% -0.0% -
OlympiakosGreece7021-7-235100.0% 3.10.0% -10.10.0% -
Werder BremenGermany6620-6-830100.0% -0.0% -9.90.0% -
BordeauxFrance7522-9-727100.0% -0.0% -0.0% -
VillarrealSpain7724-5-923100.0% -0.0% -0.0% -
ZenitRussia6118-7-520100.0% -0.0% -11.70.0% -
Sporting LisbonPortugal5516-7-718100.0% 24.60.0% -40.40.0% -
AjaxNetherlands6920-9-549100.0% 10.050.0% -2.70.0% -0.0
ArsenalEngland8324-11-343100.0% -50.0% 5.50.0% -
LiverpoolEngland7621-13-439100.0% -50.0% -0.0% -
JuventusItaly7220-12-635100.0% -50.0% -0.0% -
BarcelonaSpain6719-10-933100.0% 0.050.0% -0.00.0% -
SevillaSpain6420-4-1426100.0% 81.050.0% -40.10.0% -0.8
SchalkeGermany6418-10-623100.0% -50.0% 9.90.0% -
SpartakRussia5917-8-520100.0% -50.0% 11.70.0% -
FiorentinaItaly6619-9-1016100.0% 80.450.0% -39.70.0% -1.0
MarseilleFrance6217-11-1013100.0% 79.450.0% -32.20.0% -0.7
GuimaraesPortugal5315-8-74100.0% 31.950.0% 0.00.0% -
RangersScotland8627-5-651100.0% -25.0% 7.30.0% -
AEK AthensGreece6822-2-648100.0% 18.225.0% -6.70.0% -
FenerbahçeTurkey7322-7-535100.0% 38.325.0% -21.20.0% -4.9
Rapid WienAustria6921-6-933100.0% 4.725.0% -3.50.0% -
AnderlechtBelgium7021-7-628100.0% 50.025.0% -37.50.0% -
AaBDenmark7122-5-622100.0% -25.0% -0.0% -
HeerenveenNetherlands6018-6-10400.0% -0.4100.0% 10.50.0% -20.5
AC MilanItaly6518-11-9290.0% -78.2100.0% 39.10.0% -0.0
BenficaPortugal5213-13-4240.0% -56.5100.0% 40.30.0% -0.0
EvertonEngland6519-8-11220.0% -100.0% 13.00.0% -0.8
Hamburger SVGermany5414-12-8210.0% -100.0% 7.40.0% -10.4
TwenteNetherlands6217-11-6200.0% -1.7100.0% 8.50.0% -15.3
Atlético MadridSpain6419-7-12190.0% -79.6100.0% 39.80.0% -
NancyFrance6015-15-8140.0% -79.0100.0% 40.00.0% -
VfL WolfsburgGermany5415-9-10120.0% -100.0% 52.50.0% -28.0
MaritimoPortugal4614-4-12110.0% -100.0% 52.80.0% -34.1
SampdoriaItaly6017-9-12100.0% -0.0100.0% 18.90.0% -37.8
NAC BredaNetherlands6319-6-980.0% -7.9100.0% 5.60.0% -3.3
RacingSpain6017-9-1210.0% -1.4100.0% 10.00.0% -14.0
SivassporTurkey7323-4-7280.0% -42.2100.0% 38.60.0% -5.9
PanathinaikosGreece6620-6-4260.0% -21.3100.0% 16.80.0% -
CSKARussia5314-11-5190.0% -100.0% 18.40.0% -24.5
Club BruggeBelgium6720-7-7150.0% -50.0100.0% 37.50.0% -
MotherwellScotland6018-6-1440.0% -100.0% 25.70.0% -17.6
CopenhagenDenmark6017-9-7220.0% -100.0% 0.70.0% -0.9
SalzburgAustria6318-9-9210.0% -4.7100.0% 8.80.0% -7.0
MidtjyllandDenmark6218-8-7170.0% -100.0% 2.30.0% -3.0
BlackburnEngland5815-13-1020.0% -72.4% 44.164.7% 39.4
RennesFrance5816-10-1230.0% -69.9% 41.769.7% 47.6
BelenensesPortugal4612-10-860.0% -68.9% -2.762.1% 31.3
MallorcaSpain5915-14-9150.0% -67.6% 9.464.7% 24.1
UdineseItaly5716-9-13-50.0% -2.167.6% -18.464.7% 38.9
FeyenoordNetherlands6018-6-10230.0% -0.066.8% -19.566.4% 39.1
VfB StuttgartGermany5216-4-1400.0% -66.8% -16.866.4% 50.1
AberdeenScotland5315-8-15-80.0% -50.4% 34.066.2% 53.3
Odense BKDenmark5212-16-5190.0% -50.4% -2.366.2% 4.6
Austria WienAustria5815-13-8130.0% -47.9% 1.969.4% 16.5
MoscowRussia5215-7-8100.0% -44.0% -18.474.6% 24.5
Aris FCGreece5014-8-8130.0% -44.0% 2.974.6% 4.6
Cercle BruggeBelgium6017-9-8290.0% -41.9% 2.177.5% 3.8
BeşiktaşTurkey7323-4-7260.0% -2.641.9% -6.177.5% 10.8
Aston VillaEngland6016-12-10200.0% -33.8% -19.80.0% -14.0
Saint-ÉtienneFrance5816-10-12130.0% -0.429.0% -14.60.0% -24.2
PortsmouthEngland5716-9-1380.0% -27.7% -23.335.1% -5.5
Vitoria SetubalPortugal4511-12-740.0% -25.6% -47.037.6% 7.8
LilleFrance5713-18-7130.0% -25.2% -15.130.1% 2.7
DeportivoSpain5215-7-16-10.0% -23.0% -11.535.1% 2.9
NapoliItaly5014-8-16-30.0% -23.0% 11.835.1% 23.5
LeverkusenGermany5115-6-13170.0% -22.7% -31.833.5% 2.1
FC GroningenNetherlands5115-6-13-10.0% -22.7% -0.033.5% -0.0
Sturm GrazAustria5615-11-10190.0% -18.3% 4.030.2% 19.5
DundeeScotland5214-10-1460.0% -17.4% -26.233.5% -2.6
AC HorsensDenmark5214-10-940.0% -17.4% 1.033.5% 6.0
SaturnRussia4511-12-760.0% -13.0% -25.2% -
AE LarissaGreece4511-12-750.0% -13.0% 6.025.2% 24.1
GerminalBelgium5516-7-11120.0% -11.5% -2.022.4% -3.6
KayserisporTurkey5515-10-9190.0% -11.5% -22.4% -
MattersburgAustria5313-14-9120.0% -10.8% 0.10.3% 0.3
LinzAustria5314-11-1170.0% -10.7% -11.10.0% -29.3
RiedAustria3810-8-18-150.0% -10.7% -0.0% -
Rheindorf AltachAustria368-12-16-270.0% -10.7% -0.0% -
WackerAustria296-11-19-310.0% -10.7% -0.0% -
Austria KärntenAustria338-9-19-320.0% -10.7% -0.0% -
Man. CityEngland5515-10-13-80.0% -10.2% -14.10.2% -19.1
NiceFrance5513-16-950.0% -10.2% -2.90.1% -4.3
TottenhamEngland4611-13-1450.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
West HamEngland4913-10-15-80.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
MiddlesbroughEngland4210-12-16-100.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
BirminghamEngland358-11-19-160.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
WiganEngland4010-10-18-170.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
BoltonEngland379-10-19-180.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
NewcastleEngland4311-10-17-200.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
FulhamEngland368-12-18-220.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
SunderlandEngland3911-6-21-230.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
ReadingEngland3610-6-22-250.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
DerbyEngland111-8-29-690.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
ValenciennesFrance4512-9-1720.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
Le Mans UC72France5314-11-13-30.0% -10.1% -15.50.0% -19.1
LorientFrance5212-16-10-30.0% -10.1% -0.80.0% -1.3
CaenFrance5113-12-13-50.0% -10.1% -0.40.0% -0.7
ToulouseFrance429-15-14-60.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
MonacoFrance4713-8-17-80.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
PSGFrance4310-13-15-80.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
LensFrance409-13-16-90.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
SochauxFrance4410-14-14-90.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
AuxerreFrance4412-8-18-190.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
StrasbourgFrance359-8-21-210.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
MetzFrance245-9-24-360.0% -10.1% -0.0% -
HibernianScotland5214-10-1440.0% -9.1% -32.20.3% -29.8
Randers FCDenmark4713-8-1280.0% -9.1% -0.20.3% -0.7
FalkirkScotland4913-10-15-40.0% -9.0% -0.00.0% -0.0
HeartsScotland4813-9-16-80.0% -9.0% -1.30.0% -3.3
Caley ThistleScotland4313-4-21-110.0% -9.0% -0.0% -
KilmarnockScotland4010-10-18-130.0% -9.0% -0.0% -
St. MirrenScotland4110-11-17-280.0% -9.0% -0.0% -
GretnaScotland135-8-25-510.0% -9.0% -0.0% -
EsbjergDenmark4513-6-1450.0% -9.0% -1.00.0% -3.9
BrøndbyDenmark4311-10-1200.0% -9.0% -0.10.0% -0.2
NordsjællandDenmark4311-10-12-40.0% -9.0% -0.40.0% -1.7
AGF AarhusDenmark297-8-18-180.0% -9.0% -0.0% -
LyngbyDenmark183-9-21-360.0% -9.0% -0.0% -
Viborg FFDenmark205-5-23-390.0% -9.0% -0.0% -
BragaPortugal4110-11-9-20.0% -6.9% -2.70.2% -4.2
CD NacionalPortugal359-8-13-50.0% -6.8% -0.00.0% -0.0
AcadémicaPortugal326-14-10-70.0% -6.8% -0.0% -
BoavistaPortugal368-12-10-90.0% -6.8% -0.40.0% -0.8
LeixoesPortugal264-14-12-100.0% -6.8% -0.0% -
Estrela AmadoraPortugal316-13-11-120.0% -6.8% -0.0% -
Paços FerreiraPortugal256-7-17-180.0% -6.8% -0.0% -
Naval 1º de MaioPortugal318-7-15-230.0% -6.8% -0.0% -
Uniao LeiriaPortugal163-7-20-280.0% -6.8% -0.0% -
DynamoRussia4111-8-1120.0% -6.7% 0.00.1% 0.1
PanioniosGreece4513-6-11-30.0% -6.7% -0.10.1% -0.3
Amkar PermRussia4110-11-930.0% -6.7% -0.00.0% -0.0
Tom' TomskRussia358-11-1120.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
KhimkiRussia379-10-11-10.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
LokomotivRussia4111-8-11-30.0% -6.7% -0.00.0% -0.0
Rubin KazanRussia3510-5-15-80.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
Spartak NalchikRussia338-9-13-90.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
Krylya SovetovRussia328-8-14-110.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
KubanRussia327-11-12-110.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
Luch-EnergiaRussia328-8-14-130.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
RostovRussia182-12-16-260.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
AsterasGreece4411-11-840.0% -6.7% -8.80.0% -28.3
IraklisGreece358-11-11-60.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
PAOKGreece3510-5-15-60.0% -6.7% -0.00.0% -0.0
Skoda XanthiGreece3610-6-14-60.0% -6.7% -0.00.0% -0.0
OFI CreteGreece329-5-16-100.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
AtromitosGreece298-5-17-130.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
ErgotelisGreece307-9-14-140.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
LevadiakosGreece3310-3-17-200.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
VeriaGreece235-8-17-230.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
KalamariasGreece225-8-17-300.0% -6.7% -0.0% -
NEC NijmegenNetherlands4914-7-13-10.0% -6.1% 0.10.2% 0.1
Hannover 96Germany4913-10-11-20.0% -6.1% -10.60.2% -12.7
FC UtrechtNetherlands4613-7-1440.0% -6.0% -0.00.0% -0.0
Roda JCNetherlands4712-11-1100.0% -6.0% -0.00.0% -0.1
Hertha BerlinGermany4412-8-14-50.0% -6.0% -0.00.0% -0.0
VfL BochumGermany4110-11-13-60.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
AZ AlkmaarNetherlands4010-10-14-70.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
EintrachtGermany4612-10-12-70.0% -6.0% -0.30.0% -0.5
Vitesse ArnhemNetherlands4312-7-15-90.0% -6.0% -0.00.0% -0.0
Willem IINetherlands318-7-19-90.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
BVBGermany4010-10-14-120.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
KarlsruherGermany4311-10-13-150.0% -6.0% -0.30.0% -0.6
NürnbergGermany317-10-17-160.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
MSV DuisburgGermany298-5-21-190.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
Energie CottbusGermany369-9-16-210.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
Hansa RostockGermany308-6-20-220.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
SpartaNetherlands349-7-18-240.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
Arminia BielefeldGermany348-10-16-250.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
De GraafschapNetherlands338-9-17-290.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
HeraclesNetherlands328-8-18-300.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
VVV VenloNetherlands297-8-19-320.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
ExcelsiorNetherlands277-6-21-430.0% -6.0% -0.0% -
GentBelgium5214-10-10110.0% -6.0% 0.00.1% 0.1
TrabzonsporTurkey4914-7-1350.0% -6.0% 0.00.1% 0.0
WesterloBelgium4512-9-1360.0% -5.9% -0.00.0% -0.0
GenkBelgium4512-9-13-10.0% -5.9% -0.00.0% -0.0
LokerenBelgium429-15-10-10.0% -5.9% -0.0% -
CharleroiBelgium4613-7-14-40.0% -5.9% -0.10.0% -0.3
MouscronBelgium4212-6-16-50.0% -5.9% -0.0% -
MechelenBelgium4010-10-14-70.0% -5.9% -0.0% -
Zulte WaregemBelgium4713-8-13-70.0% -5.9% -0.00.0% -0.0
MonsBelgium337-12-15-80.0% -5.9% -0.0% -
RoeselareBelgium389-11-14-190.0% -5.9% -0.0% -
DenderBelgium339-6-19-260.0% -5.9% -0.0% -
Sint-TruidenseBelgium276-9-19-260.0% -5.9% -0.0% -
BrusselsBelgium194-7-23-390.0% -5.9% -0.0% -
DenizlisporTurkey4513-6-1500.0% -5.9% -0.00.0% -0.0
AnkarasporTurkey4110-11-13-30.0% -5.9% -0.00.0% -0.0
IstanbulTurkey3810-8-16-30.0% -5.9% -0.00.0% -0.0
OFTAŞTurkey4010-10-14-60.0% -5.9% -0.00.0% -0.0
GençlerbirliğiTurkey359-8