UEFA 2008-2009 Tournament Qualification OddsChance that each team will qualify for the 2008-2009 UEFA tournaments. NOTE: I still need to merge the Intertoto Cup into the UEFA Cup (and rename it the UEFA Europa League) for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Assumtions: - When I simulate a country’s cup winner (or winners, in the case of England and France), I assume that only teams from the country’s top league will win, and that each of those teams have an equal chance of winning.
- I don’t account for the automatic spot defending champions get in the Champions League and UEFA Cup, so even if your team shows 0% chance they could still get in if they win the tournament this year or if they where next in line to go and a team ahead of them in their league won.
- All 53 leagues have an equal chance at earning one of the three Fair Play UEFA Cup slots. I don’t account for Norway and Sweden’s fair play dominance.
- Every league and team registers for and has not been banned from the tournaments.
- Finally, this all still builds on the same 50/50 or Weighted logic as the rest of the site.
But other than all that :), I think this list covers all the rules for tournament entry. The change columns show the change since last week. A team’s combined odds of getting into the 3 tournaments can exceed 100% because some of the Champions League losers and the Intertoto Cup winners get to also play in the UEFA Cup. I sum up the odds at the bottom as a sanity check. I expect to see: - Champions League: The leagues I cover send 35 teams, so 3,500.000
- UEFA Cup: The leagues I cover send 37 teams directly, plus (on average) 7 losers from the Champions League, 5.25 winners from the the Intertoto Cup, and .79245 Fair Play teams. That sums up to 5,004.245
- Intertoto Cup: Each of the 14 leagues I cover send 1 team, so 1,400.000
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