UEFA 2008-2009 Tournament Qualification Odds

Chance that each team will qualify for the 2008-2009 UEFA tournaments.

NOTE: I still need to merge the Intertoto Cup into the UEFA Cup (and rename it the UEFA Europa League) for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

Assumtions:

When I simulate a country’s cup winner (or winners, in the case of England and France), I assume that only teams from the country’s top league will win, and that each of those teams have an equal chance of winning.
I don’t account for the automatic spot defending champions get in the Champions League and UEFA Cup, so even if your team shows 0% chance they could still get in if they win the tournament this year or if they where next in line to go and a team ahead of them in their league won.
All 53 leagues have an equal chance at earning one of the three Fair Play UEFA Cup slots. I don’t account for Norway and Sweden’s fair play dominance.
Every league and team registers for and has not been banned from the tournaments.
Finally, this all still builds on the same 50/50 or Weighted logic as the rest of the site.

But other than all that :), I think this list covers all the rules for tournament entry.

The change columns show the change since last week. A team’s combined odds of getting into the 3 tournaments can exceed 100% because some of the Champions League losers and the Intertoto Cup winners get to also play in the UEFA Cup.

									Champions League		UEFA Cup		Intertoto Cup
	Country	P	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change	%	Change

Man. United	England	87	27	-	6	-	5	58	In		Out		Out
Real Madrid	Spain	85	27	-	4	-	7	48	In		Out		Out
Bayern München	Germany	76	22	-	10	-	2	47	In		Out		Out
FC Porto	Portugal	75	24	-	3	-	3	47	In		Out		Out
Inter Milan	Italy	85	25	-	10	-	3	43	In		Out		Out
Standard Liège	Belgium	77	22	-	11	-	1	42	In		Out		Out
Galatasaray	Turkey	79	24	-	7	-	3	41	In		Out		Out
PSV Eindhoven	Netherlands	72	21	-	9	-	4	41	In		Out		Out
Chelsea	England	85	25	-	10	-	3	39	In		Out		Out
Lyon	France	79	24	-	7	-	7	37	In		Out		Out
AS Roma	Italy	82	24	-	10	-	4	35	In		Out		Out
Olympiakos	Greece	70	21	-	7	-	2	35	In		Out		Out
Werder Bremen	Germany	66	20	-	6	-	8	30	In		Out		Out
Bordeaux	France	75	22	-	9	-	7	27	In		Out		Out
Villarreal	Spain	77	24	-	5	-	9	23	In		Out		Out
Zenit	Russia	61	18	-	7	-	5	20	In		Out		Out
Sporting Lisbon	Portugal	55	16	-	7	-	7	18	In		Out		Out
Celtic	Scotland	89	28	-	5	-	5	58	In		7.7	%	Out
Ajax	Netherlands	69	20	-	9	-	5	49	In		50.0		Out
Arsenal	England	83	24	-	11	-	3	43	In		50.0		Out
Liverpool	England	76	21	-	13	-	4	39	In		50.0		Out
Juventus	Italy	72	20	-	12	-	6	35	In		50.0		Out
Barcelona	Spain	67	19	-	10	-	9	33	In		50.0		Out
Sevilla	Spain	64	20	-	4	-	14	26	In		50.0		Out
Schalke	Germany	64	18	-	10	-	6	23	In		50.0		Out
Spartak	Russia	59	17	-	8	-	5	20	In		50.0		Out
Fiorentina	Italy	66	19	-	9	-	10	16	In		50.0		Out
Marseille	France	62	17	-	11	-	10	13	In		50.0		Out
Guimaraes	Portugal	53	15	-	8	-	7	4	In		50.0		Out
Rangers	Scotland	86	27	-	5	-	6	51	In		17.3		Out
AEK Athens	Greece	68	22	-	2	-	6	48	In		25.0		Out
Fenerbahçe	Turkey	73	22	-	7	-	5	35	In		25.0		Out
Rapid Wien	Austria	69	21	-	6	-	9	33	In		25.0		Out
Anderlecht	Belgium	70	21	-	7	-	6	28	In		25.0		Out
AaB	Denmark	71	22	-	5	-	6	22	In		25.0		Out
Heerenveen	Netherlands	60	18	-	6	-	10	40	Out		In		Out
AC Milan	Italy	65	18	-	11	-	9	29	Out		In		Out
Benfica	Portugal	52	13	-	13	-	4	24	Out		In		Out
Everton	England	65	19	-	8	-	11	22	Out		In		Out
Hamburger SV	Germany	54	14	-	12	-	8	21	Out		In		Out
Twente	Netherlands	62	17	-	11	-	6	20	Out		In		Out
Atlético Madrid	Spain	64	19	-	7	-	12	19	Out		In		Out
Nancy	France	60	15	-	15	-	8	14	Out		In		Out
VfL Wolfsburg	Germany	54	15	-	9	-	10	12	Out		In		Out
Maritimo	Portugal	46	14	-	4	-	12	11	Out		In		Out
Sampdoria	Italy	60	17	-	9	-	12	10	Out		In		Out
NAC Breda	Netherlands	63	19	-	6	-	9	8	Out		In		Out
Racing	Spain	60	17	-	9	-	12	1	Out		In		Out
Sivasspor	Turkey	73	23	-	4	-	7	28	Out		In		Out
Panathinaikos	Greece	66	20	-	6	-	4	26	Out		In		Out
CSKA	Russia	53	14	-	11	-	5	19	Out		In		Out
Club Brugge	Belgium	67	20	-	7	-	7	15	Out		In		Out
Copenhagen	Denmark	60	17	-	9	-	7	22	Out		In		Out
Salzburg	Austria	63	18	-	9	-	9	21	Out		In		Out
Midtjylland	Denmark	62	18	-	8	-	7	17	Out		In		Out
Motherwell	Scotland	60	18	-	6	-	14	4	Out		76.4		24.8	%
Blackburn	England	58	15	-	13	-	10	2	Out		72.4		64.7
Rennes	France	58	16	-	10	-	12	3	Out		69.9		69.7
Belenenses	Portugal	46	12	-	10	-	8	6	Out		68.9		62.1
Mallorca	Spain	59	15	-	14	-	9	15	Out		67.6		64.7
Udinese	Italy	57	16	-	9	-	13	-5	Out		67.6		64.7
Feyenoord	Netherlands	60	18	-	6	-	10	23	Out		66.8		66.4
VfB Stuttgart	Germany	52	16	-	4	-	14	0	Out		66.8		66.4
Hibernian	Scotland	52	14	-	10	-	14	4	Out		60.6		32.2
Odense BK	Denmark	52	12	-	16	-	5	19	Out		50.4		66.2
Austria Wien	Austria	58	15	-	13	-	8	13	Out		47.9		69.4
Moscow	Russia	52	15	-	7	-	8	10	Out		44.0		74.6
Aris FC	Greece	50	14	-	8	-	8	13	Out		44.0		74.6
Cercle Brugge	Belgium	60	17	-	9	-	8	29	Out		41.9		77.5
Beşiktaş	Turkey	73	23	-	4	-	7	26	Out		41.9		77.5
Aston Villa	England	60	16	-	12	-	10	20	Out		33.8		Out
Saint-Étienne	France	58	16	-	10	-	12	13	Out		29.0		Out
Portsmouth	England	57	16	-	9	-	13	8	Out		27.7		35.1
Dundee Utd	Scotland	52	14	-	10	-	14	6	Out		26.9		32.0
Vitoria Setubal	Portugal	45	11	-	12	-	7	4	Out		25.6		37.6
Lille	France	57	13	-	18	-	7	13	Out		25.2		30.1
Deportivo	Spain	52	15	-	7	-	16	-1	Out		23.0		35.1
Napoli	Italy	50	14	-	8	-	16	-3	Out		23.0		35.1
Leverkusen	Germany	51	15	-	6	-	13	17	Out		22.7		33.5
FC Groningen	Netherlands	51	15	-	6	-	13	-1	Out		22.7		33.5
Sturm Graz	Austria	56	15	-	11	-	10	19	Out		18.3		30.2
AC Horsens	Denmark	52	14	-	10	-	9	4	Out		17.4		33.5
Saturn	Russia	45	11	-	12	-	7	6	Out		13.0		25.2
AE Larissa	Greece	45	11	-	12	-	7	5	Out		13.0		25.2
Aberdeen	Scotland	53	15	-	8	-	15	-8	Out		12.9		11.0
Germinal	Belgium	55	16	-	7	-	11	12	Out		11.5		22.4
Kayserispor	Turkey	55	15	-	10	-	9	19	Out		11.5		22.4
Mattersburg	Austria	53	13	-	14	-	9	12	Out		10.8		0.3
Linz	Austria	53	14	-	11	-	11	7	Out		10.7		Out
Ried	Austria	38	10	-	8	-	18	-15	Out		10.7		Out
Rheindorf Altach	Austria	36	8	-	12	-	16	-27	Out		10.7		Out
Wacker	Austria	29	6	-	11	-	19	-31	Out		10.7		Out
Austria Kärnten	Austria	33	8	-	9	-	19	-32	Out		10.7		Out
Man. City	England	55	15	-	10	-	13	-8	Out		10.2		0.2
Nice	France	55	13	-	16	-	9	5	Out		10.2		0.1
Tottenham	England	46	11	-	13	-	14	5	Out		10.1		Out
West Ham	England	49	13	-	10	-	15	-8	Out		10.1		Out
Middlesbrough	England	42	10	-	12	-	16	-10	Out		10.1		Out
Birmingham	England	35	8	-	11	-	19	-16	Out		10.1		Out
Wigan	England	40	10	-	10	-	18	-17	Out		10.1		Out
Bolton	England	37	9	-	10	-	19	-18	Out		10.1		Out
Newcastle	England	43	11	-	10	-	17	-20	Out		10.1		Out
Fulham	England	36	8	-	12	-	18	-22	Out		10.1		Out
Sunderland	England	39	11	-	6	-	21	-23	Out		10.1		Out
Reading	England	36	10	-	6	-	22	-25	Out		10.1		Out
Derby	England	11	1	-	8	-	29	-69	Out		10.1		Out
Valenciennes	France	45	12	-	9	-	17	2	Out		10.1		Out
Le Mans UC72	France	53	14	-	11	-	13	-3	Out		10.1		Out
Lorient	France	52	12	-	16	-	10	-3	Out		10.1		Out
Caen	France	51	13	-	12	-	13	-5	Out		10.1		Out
Toulouse	France	42	9	-	15	-	14	-6	Out		10.1		Out
Monaco	France	47	13	-	8	-	17	-8	Out		10.1		Out
PSG	France	43	10	-	13	-	15	-8	Out		10.1		Out
Lens	France	40	9	-	13	-	16	-9	Out		10.1		Out
Sochaux	France	44	10	-	14	-	14	-9	Out		10.1		Out
Auxerre	France	44	12	-	8	-	18	-19	Out		10.1		Out
Strasbourg	France	35	9	-	8	-	21	-21	Out		10.1		Out
Metz	France	24	5	-	9	-	24	-36	Out		10.1		Out
Randers FC	Denmark	47	13	-	8	-	12	8	Out		9.1		0.3
Falkirk	Scotland	49	13	-	10	-	15	-4	Out		9.0		Out
Hearts	Scotland	48	13	-	9	-	16	-8	Out		9.0		Out
Caley Thistle	Scotland	43	13	-	4	-	21	-11	Out		9.0		Out
Kilmarnock	Scotland	40	10	-	10	-	18	-13	Out		9.0		Out
St. Mirren	Scotland	41	10	-	11	-	17	-28	Out		9.0		Out
Gretna	Scotland	13	5	-	8	-	25	-51	Out		9.0		Out
Esbjerg	Denmark	45	13	-	6	-	14	5	Out		9.0		Out
Brøndby	Denmark	43	11	-	10	-	12	0	Out		9.0		Out
Nordsjælland	Denmark	43	11	-	10	-	12	-4	Out		9.0		Out
AGF Aarhus	Denmark	29	7	-	8	-	18	-18	Out		9.0		Out
Lyngby	Denmark	18	3	-	9	-	21	-36	Out		9.0		Out
Viborg FF	Denmark	20	5	-	5	-	23	-39	Out		9.0		Out
Braga	Portugal	41	10	-	11	-	9	-2	Out		6.9		0.2
CD Nacional	Portugal	35	9	-	8	-	13	-5	Out		6.8		Out
Académica	Portugal	32	6	-	14	-	10	-7	Out		6.8		Out
Boavista	Portugal	36	8	-	12	-	10	-9	Out		6.8		Out
Leixoes	Portugal	26	4	-	14	-	12	-10	Out		6.8		Out
Estrela Amadora	Portugal	31	6	-	13	-	11	-12	Out		6.8		Out
Paços Ferreira	Portugal	25	6	-	7	-	17	-18	Out		6.8		Out
Naval 1º de Maio	Portugal	31	8	-	7	-	15	-23	Out		6.8		Out
Uniao Leiria	Portugal	16	3	-	7	-	20	-28	Out		6.8		Out
Dynamo	Russia	41	11	-	8	-	11	2	Out		6.7		0.1
Panionios	Greece	45	13	-	6	-	11	-3	Out		6.7		0.1
Amkar Perm	Russia	41	10	-	11	-	9	3	Out		6.7		Out
Tom' Tomsk	Russia	35	8	-	11	-	11	2	Out		6.7		Out
Khimki	Russia	37	9	-	10	-	11	-1	Out		6.7		Out
Lokomotiv	Russia	41	11	-	8	-	11	-3	Out		6.7		Out
Rubin Kazan	Russia	35	10	-	5	-	15	-8	Out		6.7		Out
Spartak Nalchik	Russia	33	8	-	9	-	13	-9	Out		6.7		Out
Krylya Sovetov	Russia	32	8	-	8	-	14	-11	Out		6.7		Out
Kuban	Russia	32	7	-	11	-	12	-11	Out		6.7		Out
Luch-Energia	Russia	32	8	-	8	-	14	-13	Out		6.7		Out
Rostov	Russia	18	2	-	12	-	16	-26	Out		6.7		Out
Asteras	Greece	44	11	-	11	-	8	4	Out		6.7		Out
Iraklis	Greece	35	8	-	11	-	11	-6	Out		6.7		Out
PAOK	Greece	35	10	-	5	-	15	-6	Out		6.7		Out
Skoda Xanthi	Greece	36	10	-	6	-	14	-6	Out		6.7		Out
OFI Crete	Greece	32	9	-	5	-	16	-10	Out		6.7		Out
Atromitos	Greece	29	8	-	5	-	17	-13	Out		6.7		Out
Ergotelis	Greece	30	7	-	9	-	14	-14	Out		6.7		Out
Levadiakos	Greece	33	10	-	3	-	17	-20	Out		6.7		Out
Veria	Greece	23	5	-	8	-	17	-23	Out		6.7		Out
Kalamarias	Greece	22	5	-	8	-	17	-30	Out		6.7		Out
NEC Nijmegen	Netherlands	49	14	-	7	-	13	-1	Out		6.1		0.2
Hannover 96	Germany	49	13	-	10	-	11	-2	Out		6.1		0.2
FC Utrecht	Netherlands	46	13	-	7	-	14	4	Out		6.0		Out
Roda JC	Netherlands	47	12	-	11	-	11	0	Out		6.0		Out
Hertha Berlin	Germany	44	12	-	8	-	14	-5	Out		6.0		Out
VfL Bochum	Germany	41	10	-	11	-	13	-6	Out		6.0		Out
AZ Alkmaar	Netherlands	40	10	-	10	-	14	-7	Out		6.0		Out
Eintracht	Germany	46	12	-	10	-	12	-7	Out		6.0		Out
Vitesse Arnhem	Netherlands	43	12	-	7	-	15	-9	Out		6.0		Out
Willem II	Netherlands	31	8	-	7	-	19	-9	Out		6.0		Out
BVB	Germany	40	10	-	10	-	14	-12	Out		6.0		Out
Karlsruher	Germany	43	11	-	10	-	13	-15	Out		6.0		Out
Nürnberg	Germany	31	7	-	10	-	17	-16	Out		6.0		Out
MSV Duisburg	Germany	29	8	-	5	-	21	-19	Out		6.0		Out
Energie Cottbus	Germany	36	9	-	9	-	16	-21	Out		6.0		Out
Hansa Rostock	Germany	30	8	-	6	-	20	-22	Out		6.0		Out
Sparta	Netherlands	34	9	-	7	-	18	-24	Out		6.0		Out
Arminia Bielefeld	Germany	34	8	-	10	-	16	-25	Out		6.0		Out
De Graafschap	Netherlands	33	8	-	9	-	17	-29	Out		6.0		Out
Heracles	Netherlands	32	8	-	8	-	18	-30	Out		6.0		Out
VVV Venlo	Netherlands	29	7	-	8	-	19	-32	Out		6.0		Out
Excelsior	Netherlands	27	7	-	6	-	21	-43	Out		6.0		Out
Gent	Belgium	52	14	-	10	-	10	11	Out		6.0		0.1
Trabzonspor	Turkey	49	14	-	7	-	13	5	Out		6.0		0.1
Westerlo	Belgium	45	12	-	9	-	13	6	Out		5.9		Out
Genk	Belgium	45	12	-	9	-	13	-1	Out		5.9		Out
Lokeren	Belgium	42	9	-	15	-	10	-1	Out		5.9		Out
Charleroi	Belgium	46	13	-	7	-	14	-4	Out		5.9		Out
Mouscron	Belgium	42	12	-	6	-	16	-5	Out		5.9		Out
Mechelen	Belgium	40	10	-	10	-	14	-7	Out		5.9		Out
Zulte Waregem	Belgium	47	13	-	8	-	13	-7	Out		5.9		Out
Mons	Belgium	33	7	-	12	-	15	-8	Out		5.9		Out
Roeselare	Belgium	38	9	-	11	-	14	-19	Out		5.9		Out
Dender	Belgium	33	9	-	6	-	19	-26	Out		5.9		Out
Sint-Truidense	Belgium	27	6	-	9	-	19	-26	Out		5.9		Out
Brussels	Belgium	19	4	-	7	-	23	-39	Out		5.9		Out
Denizlispor	Turkey	45	13	-	6	-	15	0	Out		5.9		Out
Ankaraspor	Turkey	41	10	-	11	-	13	-3	Out		5.9		Out
Istanbul	Turkey	38	10	-	8	-	16	-3	Out		5.9		Out
OFTAŞ	Turkey	40	10	-	10	-	14	-6	Out		5.9		Out
Gençlerbirliği	Turkey	35	9	-	8	-	17	-7	Out		5.9		Out
Ankaragücü	Turkey	43	11	-	10	-	13	-8	Out		5.9		Out
Bursaspor	Turkey	38	9	-	11	-	14	-9	Out		5.9		Out
Gaziantepspor	Turkey	43	11	-	10	-	13	-9	Out		5.9		Out
Manisaspor	Turkey	29	7	-	8	-	19	-20	Out		5.9		Out
Konyaspor	Turkey	36	10	-	6	-	18	-27	Out		5.9		Out
Kasımpaşa	Turkey	29	8	-	5	-	21	-30	Out		5.9		Out
Rizespor	Turkey	29	7	-	8	-	19	-32	Out		5.9		Out
Almería	Spain	52	14	-	10	-	14	-3	Out		5.5		0.2
Genoa	Italy	48	13	-	9	-	16	-8	Out		5.5		0.2
Athletic Bilbao	Spain	50	13	-	11	-	14	-3	Out		5.4		Out
Getafe	Spain	47	12	-	11	-	15	-4	Out		5.4		Out
Lazio	Italy	46	11	-	13	-	14	-4	Out		5.4		Out
AC Siena	Italy	44	9	-	17	-	12	-5	Out		5.4		Out
Atalanta BC	Italy	46	11	-	13	-	14	-5	Out		5.4		Out
Real Betis	Spain	47	12	-	11	-	15	-6	Out		5.4		Out
Osasuna	Spain	43	12	-	7	-	19	-7	Out		5.4		Out
Espanyol	Spain	48	13	-	9	-	16	-10	Out		5.4		Out
Palermo	Italy	47	12	-	11	-	15	-10	Out		5.4		Out
Real Zaragoza	Spain	42	10	-	12	-	16	-11	Out		5.4		Out
Calcio Catania	Italy	37	8	-	13	-	17	-12	Out		5.4		Out
Torino	Italy	40	8	-	16	-	14	-13	Out		5.4		Out
Valencia	Spain	51	15	-	6	-	17	-14	Out		5.4		Out
Valladolid	Spain	45	11	-	12	-	15	-15	Out		5.4		Out
Cagliari Calcio	Italy	42	11	-	9	-	18	-16	Out		5.4		Out
Reggina Calcio	Italy	40	9	-	13	-	16	-19	Out		5.4		Out
Parma	Italy	34	7	-	13	-	18	-20	Out		5.4		Out
Recre	Spain	44	11	-	11	-	16	-20	Out		5.4		Out
Empoli	Italy	36	9	-	9	-	20	-23	Out		5.4		Out
Livorno	Italy	30	6	-	12	-	20	-25	Out		5.4		Out
Murcia	Spain	30	7	-	9	-	22	-29	Out		5.4		Out
Levante	Spain	26	7	-	5	-	26	-42	Out		5.4		Out

234 teams	14 countries								3,500.000		5,004.245		1,400.000

I sum up the odds at the bottom as a sanity check.

I expect to see:

Champions League: The leagues I cover send 35 teams, so 3,500.000
UEFA Cup: The leagues I cover send 37 teams directly, plus (on average) 7 losers from the Champions League, 5.25 winners from the the Intertoto Cup, and .79245 Fair Play teams. That sums up to 5,004.245
Intertoto Cup: Each of the 14 leagues I cover send 1 team, so 1,400.000