UEFA 2008-2009 Tournament Qualification Odds

Chance that each team will qualify for the 2008-2009 UEFA tournaments.

NOTE: I still need to merge the Intertoto Cup into the UEFA Cup (and rename it the UEFA Europa League) for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

Assumtions:

When I simulate a country’s cup winner (or winners, in the case of England and France), I assume that only teams from the country’s top league will win, and that each of those teams have an equal chance of winning.
I don’t account for the automatic spot defending champions get in the Champions League and UEFA Cup, so even if your team shows 0% chance they could still get in if they win the tournament this year or if they where next in line to go and a team ahead of them in their league won.
All 53 leagues have an equal chance at earning one of the three Fair Play UEFA Cup slots. I don’t account for Norway and Sweden’s fair play dominance.
Every league and team registers for and has not been banned from the tournaments.
Finally, this all still builds on the same 50/50 or Weighted logic as the rest of the site.

But other than all that :), I think this list covers all the rules for tournament entry.

The change columns show the change since last week. A team’s combined odds of getting into the 3 tournaments can exceed 100% because some of the Champions League losers and the Intertoto Cup winners get to also play in the UEFA Cup.

									Champions League		UEFA Cup		Intertoto Cup
	Country	P	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change	%	Change

Man. United	England	87	27	-	6	-	5	58	Yes		No		No
Real Madrid	Spain	85	27	-	4	-	7	48	Yes		No		No
Bayern München	Germany	76	22	-	10	-	2	47	Yes		No		No
FC Porto	Portugal	75	24	-	3	-	3	47	Yes		No		No
Inter Milan	Italy	85	25	-	10	-	3	43	Yes		No		No
Standard Liège	Belgium	77	22	-	11	-	1	42	Yes		No		No
Galatasaray	Turkey	79	24	-	7	-	3	41	Yes		No		No
PSV Eindhoven	Netherlands	72	21	-	9	-	4	41	Yes		No		No
Chelsea	England	85	25	-	10	-	3	39	Yes		No		No
Lyon	France	79	24	-	7	-	7	37	Yes		No		No
AS Roma	Italy	82	24	-	10	-	4	35	Yes		No		No
Olympiakos	Greece	70	21	-	7	-	2	35	Yes		No		No
Werder Bremen	Germany	66	20	-	6	-	8	30	Yes		No		No
Bordeaux	France	75	22	-	9	-	7	27	Yes		No		No
Villarreal	Spain	77	24	-	5	-	9	23	Yes		No		No
Zenit	Russia	61	18	-	7	-	5	20	Yes		No		No
Sporting Lisbon	Portugal	55	16	-	7	-	7	18	Yes		No		No
Celtic	Scotland	89	28	-	5	-	5	58	Yes		7.7	%	No
Ajax	Netherlands	69	20	-	9	-	5	49	Yes		50.0		No
Arsenal	England	83	24	-	11	-	3	43	Yes		50.0		No
Liverpool	England	76	21	-	13	-	4	39	Yes		50.0		No
Juventus	Italy	72	20	-	12	-	6	35	Yes		50.0		No
Barcelona	Spain	67	19	-	10	-	9	33	Yes		50.0		No
Sevilla	Spain	64	20	-	4	-	14	26	Yes		50.0		No
Schalke	Germany	64	18	-	10	-	6	23	Yes		50.0		No
Spartak	Russia	59	17	-	8	-	5	20	Yes		50.0		No
Fiorentina	Italy	66	19	-	9	-	10	16	Yes		50.0		No
Marseille	France	62	17	-	11	-	10	13	Yes		50.0		No
Guimaraes	Portugal	53	15	-	8	-	7	4	Yes		50.0		No
Rangers	Scotland	86	27	-	5	-	6	51	Yes		17.3		No
AEK Athens	Greece	68	22	-	2	-	6	48	Yes		25.0		No
Fenerbahçe	Turkey	73	22	-	7	-	5	35	Yes		25.0		No
Rapid Wien	Austria	69	21	-	6	-	9	33	Yes		25.0		No
Anderlecht	Belgium	70	21	-	7	-	6	28	Yes		25.0		No
AaB	Denmark	71	22	-	5	-	6	22	Yes		25.0		No
Heerenveen	Netherlands	60	18	-	6	-	10	40	No		Yes		No
AC Milan	Italy	65	18	-	11	-	9	29	No		Yes		No
Benfica	Portugal	52	13	-	13	-	4	24	No		Yes		No
Everton	England	65	19	-	8	-	11	22	No		Yes		No
Hamburger SV	Germany	54	14	-	12	-	8	21	No		Yes		No
Twente	Netherlands	62	17	-	11	-	6	20	No		Yes		No
Atlético Madrid	Spain	64	19	-	7	-	12	19	No		Yes		No
Nancy	France	60	15	-	15	-	8	14	No		Yes		No
VfL Wolfsburg	Germany	54	15	-	9	-	10	12	No		Yes		No
Maritimo	Portugal	46	14	-	4	-	12	11	No		Yes		No
Sampdoria	Italy	60	17	-	9	-	12	10	No		Yes		No
NAC Breda	Netherlands	63	19	-	6	-	9	8	No		Yes		No
Racing	Spain	60	17	-	9	-	12	1	No		Yes		No
Sivasspor	Turkey	73	23	-	4	-	7	28	No		Yes		No
Panathinaikos	Greece	66	20	-	6	-	4	26	No		Yes		No
CSKA	Russia	53	14	-	11	-	5	19	No		Yes		No
Club Brugge	Belgium	67	20	-	7	-	7	15	No		Yes		No
Copenhagen	Denmark	60	17	-	9	-	7	22	No		Yes		No
Salzburg	Austria	63	18	-	9	-	9	21	No		Yes		No
Midtjylland	Denmark	62	18	-	8	-	7	17	No		Yes		No
Motherwell	Scotland	60	18	-	6	-	14	4	No		76.4		24.8	%
Blackburn	England	58	15	-	13	-	10	2	No		72.4		64.7
Rennes	France	58	16	-	10	-	12	3	No		69.9		69.7
Belenenses	Portugal	46	12	-	10	-	8	6	No		68.9		62.1
Mallorca	Spain	59	15	-	14	-	9	15	No		67.6		64.7
Udinese	Italy	57	16	-	9	-	13	-5	No		67.6		64.7
Feyenoord	Netherlands	60	18	-	6	-	10	23	No		66.8		66.4
VfB Stuttgart	Germany	52	16	-	4	-	14	0	No		66.8		66.4
Hibernian	Scotland	52	14	-	10	-	14	4	No		60.6		32.2
Odense BK	Denmark	52	12	-	16	-	5	19	No		50.4		66.2
Austria Wien	Austria	58	15	-	13	-	8	13	No		47.9		69.4
Moscow	Russia	52	15	-	7	-	8	10	No		44.0		74.6
Aris FC	Greece	50	14	-	8	-	8	13	No		44.0		74.6
Cercle Brugge	Belgium	60	17	-	9	-	8	29	No		41.9		77.5
Beşiktaş	Turkey	73	23	-	4	-	7	26	No		41.9		77.5
Aston Villa	England	60	16	-	12	-	10	20	No		33.8		No
Saint-Étienne	France	58	16	-	10	-	12	13	No		29.0		No
Portsmouth	England	57	16	-	9	-	13	8	No		27.7		35.1
Dundee Utd	Scotland	52	14	-	10	-	14	6	No		26.9		32.0
Vitoria Setubal	Portugal	45	11	-	12	-	7	4	No		25.6		37.6
Lille	France	57	13	-	18	-	7	13	No		25.2		30.1
Deportivo	Spain	52	15	-	7	-	16	-1	No		23.0		35.1
Napoli	Italy	50	14	-	8	-	16	-3	No		23.0		35.1
Leverkusen	Germany	51	15	-	6	-	13	17	No		22.7		33.5
FC Groningen	Netherlands	51	15	-	6	-	13	-1	No		22.7		33.5
Sturm Graz	Austria	56	15	-	11	-	10	19	No		18.3		30.2
AC Horsens	Denmark	52	14	-	10	-	9	4	No		17.4		33.5
Saturn	Russia	45	11	-	12	-	7	6	No		13.0		25.2
AE Larissa	Greece	45	11	-	12	-	7	5	No		13.0		25.2
Aberdeen	Scotland	53	15	-	8	-	15	-8	No		12.9		11.0
Germinal	Belgium	55	16	-	7	-	11	12	No		11.5		22.4
Kayserispor	Turkey	55	15	-	10	-	9	19	No		11.5		22.4
Mattersburg	Austria	53	13	-	14	-	9	12	No		10.8		0.3
Linz	Austria	53	14	-	11	-	11	7	No		10.7		No
Ried	Austria	38	10	-	8	-	18	-15	No		10.7		No
Rheindorf Altach	Austria	36	8	-	12	-	16	-27	No		10.7		No
Wacker	Austria	29	6	-	11	-	19	-31	No		10.7		No
Austria Kärnten	Austria	33	8	-	9	-	19	-32	No		10.7		No
Man. City	England	55	15	-	10	-	13	-8	No		10.2		0.2
Nice	France	55	13	-	16	-	9	5	No		10.2		0.1
Tottenham	England	46	11	-	13	-	14	5	No		10.1		No
West Ham	England	49	13	-	10	-	15	-8	No		10.1		No
Middlesbrough	England	42	10	-	12	-	16	-10	No		10.1		No
Birmingham	England	35	8	-	11	-	19	-16	No		10.1		No
Wigan	England	40	10	-	10	-	18	-17	No		10.1		No
Bolton	England	37	9	-	10	-	19	-18	No		10.1		No
Newcastle	England	43	11	-	10	-	17	-20	No		10.1		No
Fulham	England	36	8	-	12	-	18	-22	No		10.1		No
Sunderland	England	39	11	-	6	-	21	-23	No		10.1		No
Reading	England	36	10	-	6	-	22	-25	No		10.1		No
Derby	England	11	1	-	8	-	29	-69	No		10.1		No
Valenciennes	France	45	12	-	9	-	17	2	No		10.1		No
Le Mans UC72	France	53	14	-	11	-	13	-3	No		10.1		No
Lorient	France	52	12	-	16	-	10	-3	No		10.1		No
Caen	France	51	13	-	12	-	13	-5	No		10.1		No
Toulouse	France	42	9	-	15	-	14	-6	No		10.1		No
Monaco	France	47	13	-	8	-	17	-8	No		10.1		No
PSG	France	43	10	-	13	-	15	-8	No		10.1		No
Lens	France	40	9	-	13	-	16	-9	No		10.1		No
Sochaux	France	44	10	-	14	-	14	-9	No		10.1		No
Auxerre	France	44	12	-	8	-	18	-19	No		10.1		No
Strasbourg	France	35	9	-	8	-	21	-21	No		10.1		No
Metz	France	24	5	-	9	-	24	-36	No		10.1		No
Randers FC	Denmark	47	13	-	8	-	12	8	No		9.1		0.3
Falkirk	Scotland	49	13	-	10	-	15	-4	No		9.0		No
Hearts	Scotland	48	13	-	9	-	16	-8	No		9.0		No
Caley Thistle	Scotland	43	13	-	4	-	21	-11	No		9.0		No
Kilmarnock	Scotland	40	10	-	10	-	18	-13	No		9.0		No
St. Mirren	Scotland	41	10	-	11	-	17	-28	No		9.0		No
Gretna	Scotland	13	5	-	8	-	25	-51	No		9.0		No
Esbjerg	Denmark	45	13	-	6	-	14	5	No		9.0		No
Brøndby	Denmark	43	11	-	10	-	12	0	No		9.0		No
Nordsjælland	Denmark	43	11	-	10	-	12	-4	No		9.0		No
AGF Aarhus	Denmark	29	7	-	8	-	18	-18	No		9.0		No
Lyngby	Denmark	18	3	-	9	-	21	-36	No		9.0		No
Viborg FF	Denmark	20	5	-	5	-	23	-39	No		9.0		No
Braga	Portugal	41	10	-	11	-	9	-2	No		6.9		0.2
CD Nacional	Portugal	35	9	-	8	-	13	-5	No		6.8		No
Académica	Portugal	32	6	-	14	-	10	-7	No		6.8		No
Boavista	Portugal	36	8	-	12	-	10	-9	No		6.8		No
Leixoes	Portugal	26	4	-	14	-	12	-10	No		6.8		No
Estrela Amadora	Portugal	31	6	-	13	-	11	-12	No		6.8		No
Paços Ferreira	Portugal	25	6	-	7	-	17	-18	No		6.8		No
Naval 1º de Maio	Portugal	31	8	-	7	-	15	-23	No		6.8		No
Uniao Leiria	Portugal	16	3	-	7	-	20	-28	No		6.8		No
Dynamo	Russia	41	11	-	8	-	11	2	No		6.7		0.1
Panionios	Greece	45	13	-	6	-	11	-3	No		6.7		0.1
Amkar Perm	Russia	41	10	-	11	-	9	3	No		6.7		No
Tom' Tomsk	Russia	35	8	-	11	-	11	2	No		6.7		No
Khimki	Russia	37	9	-	10	-	11	-1	No		6.7		No
Lokomotiv	Russia	41	11	-	8	-	11	-3	No		6.7		No
Rubin Kazan	Russia	35	10	-	5	-	15	-8	No		6.7		No
Spartak Nalchik	Russia	33	8	-	9	-	13	-9	No		6.7		No
Krylya Sovetov	Russia	32	8	-	8	-	14	-11	No		6.7		No
Kuban	Russia	32	7	-	11	-	12	-11	No		6.7		No
Luch-Energia	Russia	32	8	-	8	-	14	-13	No		6.7		No
Rostov	Russia	18	2	-	12	-	16	-26	No		6.7		No
Asteras	Greece	44	11	-	11	-	8	4	No		6.7		No
Iraklis	Greece	35	8	-	11	-	11	-6	No		6.7		No
PAOK	Greece	35	10	-	5	-	15	-6	No		6.7		No
Skoda Xanthi	Greece	36	10	-	6	-	14	-6	No		6.7		No
OFI Crete	Greece	32	9	-	5	-	16	-10	No		6.7		No
Atromitos	Greece	29	8	-	5	-	17	-13	No		6.7		No
Ergotelis	Greece	30	7	-	9	-	14	-14	No		6.7		No
Levadiakos	Greece	33	10	-	3	-	17	-20	No		6.7		No
Veria	Greece	23	5	-	8	-	17	-23	No		6.7		No
Kalamarias	Greece	22	5	-	8	-	17	-30	No		6.7		No
NEC Nijmegen	Netherlands	49	14	-	7	-	13	-1	No		6.1		0.2
Hannover 96	Germany	49	13	-	10	-	11	-2	No		6.1		0.2
FC Utrecht	Netherlands	46	13	-	7	-	14	4	No		6.0		No
Roda JC	Netherlands	47	12	-	11	-	11	0	No		6.0		No
Hertha Berlin	Germany	44	12	-	8	-	14	-5	No		6.0		No
VfL Bochum	Germany	41	10	-	11	-	13	-6	No		6.0		No
AZ Alkmaar	Netherlands	40	10	-	10	-	14	-7	No		6.0		No
Eintracht	Germany	46	12	-	10	-	12	-7	No		6.0		No
Vitesse Arnhem	Netherlands	43	12	-	7	-	15	-9	No		6.0		No
Willem II	Netherlands	31	8	-	7	-	19	-9	No		6.0		No
BVB	Germany	40	10	-	10	-	14	-12	No		6.0		No
Karlsruher	Germany	43	11	-	10	-	13	-15	No		6.0		No
Nürnberg	Germany	31	7	-	10	-	17	-16	No		6.0		No
MSV Duisburg	Germany	29	8	-	5	-	21	-19	No		6.0		No
Energie Cottbus	Germany	36	9	-	9	-	16	-21	No		6.0		No
Hansa Rostock	Germany	30	8	-	6	-	20	-22	No		6.0		No
Sparta	Netherlands	34	9	-	7	-	18	-24	No		6.0		No
Arminia Bielefeld	Germany	34	8	-	10	-	16	-25	No		6.0		No
De Graafschap	Netherlands	33	8	-	9	-	17	-29	No		6.0		No
Heracles	Netherlands	32	8	-	8	-	18	-30	No		6.0		No
VVV Venlo	Netherlands	29	7	-	8	-	19	-32	No		6.0		No
Excelsior	Netherlands	27	7	-	6	-	21	-43	No		6.0		No
Gent	Belgium	52	14	-	10	-	10	11	No		6.0		0.1
Trabzonspor	Turkey	49	14	-	7	-	13	5	No		6.0		0.1
Westerlo	Belgium	45	12	-	9	-	13	6	No		5.9		No
Genk	Belgium	45	12	-	9	-	13	-1	No		5.9		No
Lokeren	Belgium	42	9	-	15	-	10	-1	No		5.9		No
Charleroi	Belgium	46	13	-	7	-	14	-4	No		5.9		No
Mouscron	Belgium	42	12	-	6	-	16	-5	No		5.9		No
Mechelen	Belgium	40	10	-	10	-	14	-7	No		5.9		No
Zulte Waregem	Belgium	47	13	-	8	-	13	-7	No		5.9		No
Mons	Belgium	33	7	-	12	-	15	-8	No		5.9		No
Roeselare	Belgium	38	9	-	11	-	14	-19	No		5.9		No
Dender	Belgium	33	9	-	6	-	19	-26	No		5.9		No
Sint-Truidense	Belgium	27	6	-	9	-	19	-26	No		5.9		No
Brussels	Belgium	19	4	-	7	-	23	-39	No		5.9		No
Denizlispor	Turkey	45	13	-	6	-	15	0	No		5.9		No
Ankaraspor	Turkey	41	10	-	11	-	13	-3	No		5.9		No
Istanbul	Turkey	38	10	-	8	-	16	-3	No		5.9		No
OFTAŞ	Turkey	40	10	-	10	-	14	-6	No		5.9		No
Gençlerbirliği	Turkey	35	9	-	8	-	17	-7	No		5.9		No
Ankaragücü	Turkey	43	11	-	10	-	13	-8	No		5.9		No
Bursaspor	Turkey	38	9	-	11	-	14	-9	No		5.9		No
Gaziantepspor	Turkey	43	11	-	10	-	13	-9	No		5.9		No
Manisaspor	Turkey	29	7	-	8	-	19	-20	No		5.9		No
Konyaspor	Turkey	36	10	-	6	-	18	-27	No		5.9		No
Kasımpaşa	Turkey	29	8	-	5	-	21	-30	No		5.9		No
Rizespor	Turkey	29	7	-	8	-	19	-32	No		5.9		No
Almería	Spain	52	14	-	10	-	14	-3	No		5.5		0.2
Genoa	Italy	48	13	-	9	-	16	-8	No		5.5		0.2
Athletic Bilbao	Spain	50	13	-	11	-	14	-3	No		5.4		No
Getafe	Spain	47	12	-	11	-	15	-4	No		5.4		No
Lazio	Italy	46	11	-	13	-	14	-4	No		5.4		No
AC Siena	Italy	44	9	-	17	-	12	-5	No		5.4		No
Atalanta BC	Italy	46	11	-	13	-	14	-5	No		5.4		No
Real Betis	Spain	47	12	-	11	-	15	-6	No		5.4		No
Osasuna	Spain	43	12	-	7	-	19	-7	No		5.4		No
Espanyol	Spain	48	13	-	9	-	16	-10	No		5.4		No
Palermo	Italy	47	12	-	11	-	15	-10	No		5.4		No
Real Zaragoza	Spain	42	10	-	12	-	16	-11	No		5.4		No
Calcio Catania	Italy	37	8	-	13	-	17	-12	No		5.4		No
Torino	Italy	40	8	-	16	-	14	-13	No		5.4		No
Valencia	Spain	51	15	-	6	-	17	-14	No		5.4		No
Valladolid	Spain	45	11	-	12	-	15	-15	No		5.4		No
Cagliari Calcio	Italy	42	11	-	9	-	18	-16	No		5.4		No
Reggina Calcio	Italy	40	9	-	13	-	16	-19	No		5.4		No
Parma	Italy	34	7	-	13	-	18	-20	No		5.4		No
Recre	Spain	44	11	-	11	-	16	-20	No		5.4		No
Empoli	Italy	36	9	-	9	-	20	-23	No		5.4		No
Livorno	Italy	30	6	-	12	-	20	-25	No		5.4		No
Murcia	Spain	30	7	-	9	-	22	-29	No		5.4		No
Levante	Spain	26	7	-	5	-	26	-42	No		5.4		No

234 teams	14 countries								3,500.000		5,004.245		1,400.000

I sum up the odds at the bottom as a sanity check.

I expect to see:

Champions League: The leagues I cover send 35 teams, so 3,500.000
UEFA Cup: The leagues I cover send 37 teams directly, plus (on average) 7 losers from the Champions League, 5.25 winners from the the Intertoto Cup, and .79245 Fair Play teams. That sums up to 5,004.245
Intertoto Cup: Each of the 14 leagues I cover send 1 team, so 1,400.000